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Random Reinforcement: Why Most Traders Fail
Random Reinforcement: Using arbitrary events to qualify (or disqualify) a hypothesis or idea; attributing skill or lack of skill to an outcome that is unsystematic in nature; finding support for positive or negative behaviors from outcomes that are inconsistent in nature—like the financial markets.
One of the most interesting topics in trading, and really throughout many areas of life, is random reinforcement. Random reinforcement, as it relates to harmful trading practices, occurs when a trader attributes a random outcome to skill or lack of skill. The market occasionally rewards bad habits and punishes good habits because the market is so dynamic. It is especially negative if a new trader who wins a few trades, with absolutely no plan whatsoever, attributes this success to “intuition.” Random reinforcement can also hurt veteran traders who experience a string of losses and believe they no longer possess skill. (See also: Trading Psychology and Discipline.)
Random reinforcement can create long-term bad habits that are extremely hard to break. It is equivalent to gambling addicts who keep playing because they win just enough to keep them there, but of course they are losing their money over the long run. A successful card player may also experience a significant draw down, abandon his proven strategy and in doing so give his edge back to the house. (See also: 10 Cleaning Tips to Spruce Up Your Trading.)
How Random Reinforcement Affects Us
The concept of random reinforcement is hard to grasp for some traders, but understanding it can be the difference between actually improving as a trader or simply believing we are improving when we are not. The best way to understand this to go through a few examples.
[You are more likely to avoid the issue of random reinforcement if you consistently and meticulously incorporate the proper technical tools in your analysis. To learn more, check out the Technical Analysis course on the Investopedia Academy, which includes interactive content and real-world examples that can help you along the path to profitable trading.]
Example 1: Relying on Random
John is a new trader. He has a business background, watches the news and follows the stock market, but he has not traded personally. He feels he has a good handle on what it takes to be a good trader, but so far, he has not written any of these methods down. John has opened a trading account and believes his background knowledge will make him a profitable trader. Opening his charts for the first time, John see a default stock in the trading platform, and it is rising quickly. He quickly buys 200 shares without even thinking. The stock continues to rise while he makes lunch. After lunch, he comes back and sells his shares, making himself a $100 profit after fees. John makes another trade and ends up with a similar result. He is starting to feel that he is very good at this and that he must have a “knack” for trading.
In analyzing the situation, experienced traders will notice a few things that could lead to short-lived trading career for this trader. The main problem is that several successful trades are not a valid sampling for if a trader will be profitable over the long run. John, the trader in this case, needs to make sure that he does not fall into the trap of believing that his current methods, which are still very much untested, will bring him long-term success. The danger lies in refusing proper market guidance or methods, whether self created or provided by someone else, because this initial untested method is believed to be superior based on these preliminary trades. The trader can begin to think very strongly that, if it worked once, it can work most, or all, of the time. The markets will not reward erroneous thinking over the long run but may reward random and unplanned trades some of the time. (See also: 9 Tricks of the Successful Trader.)
In the next example, we will look at random reinforcement again, but from a different angle. This example pertains more to experienced traders, or traders who are coming to the market with a written down strategy or method that is back tested or proven to be profitable in live trading. It should be noted that not all methods that were successful in the past will continue to be, as we just found out in the previous example (on a small scale). But methods that have shown success in the past are more likely to provide a chance of profitability in the future than a method that is completely untested or has never been profitable over the long run.
Example 2: Abandoning Strategy
John has now been trading in the markets for some time. He realized that approaching the market without a well thought out, written down and well researched plan was a mistake. He has overcome the problems evident in the first example and now has a solid trading plan for approaching the markets. This method has worked well over the past two years, and he has made money.
John is now facing another problem. Despite past success with this plan, his method has now led him to nine consecutive losing trades, and he is starting to worry that his plan is no longer working. John therefore changes his plan for trading, as he feels his method is no longer valid. In doing so, John ends up trading a new untested method, possibly similar to when he started trading.
The problem in this example becomes evident when John abandons his method, which has been successful, in exchange for an unproven method. This could put John right back to the beginning, even after trading successfully in the markets for a number of years. (See also: Day Trading Strategies for Beginners.)
Why did this happen? John failed to realize that, while randomness can create winning streaks using a flawed trading method, randomness can also create a string of losses with an excellent trading plan. Therefore, it is very important to make sure a trading plan is not actually going to work anymore (was the original success random?) or determine if this could simply be a run of losses based on current market conditions that will soon pass.
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All traders experience losses, and there is no definitive number of losing trades in a row that will tell a trader if his or her plan is no longer working. Each strategy is different, but we can learn to deal with randomness. (For more, see: 4 Key Elements to Create a Successful Trading Plan.)
What We Can Learn
Once we realize that randomness can create strings of losses in great trading plans and strings of profits in poor trading plans (and also scenarios that fall in between these examples), how do we adjust to trade profitably over the long term?
While each trading plan is different, each trader must have a written trading plan that outlines how he or she will trade. This plan should be well researched and lay out entries, exits and money management rules. In this way, the trader will know over the long run if the plan is flawed or successful. It is also extremely important to risk a very small percentage of capital on each trade; risk levels of each trade should be covered in the trading plan under the money management section. This gives leeway to the trader, as he or she will be able to withstand a string of losses and be less likely to make a premature change in the trading plan when it is not needed. (See also: Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)
The Bottom Line
The markets are extremely dynamic and in constant flux. This brings in an element of randomness that can create profits for unskilled traders and losses for skilled traders, and it happens all the time. A trader must also determine when a certain string of losses or profits can be attributed their skill and when it is random.
The only way to do this while you are learning is to approach the markets with a trading plan and risk a small percentage of capital on each trade. In this way, the trader can see how a method performs over the long run, in which randomness becomes less of a factor. It is also important to remember that even the best traders and trading methods experience strings of losses, and this is not reason to abandon the strategy. However, isolating why the method is no longer working may help lessen the extent of the losses when similar adverse conditions arise again. (See also: Financial Ratios Tutorial and Investing 101 Tutorial.)
Scientist Discovered Why Most Traders Lose Money – 24 Surprising Statistics
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Scientist Discovered Why Most Traders Lose Money – 24 Surprising Statistics
“95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves this number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders lose money.
- 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
- Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. Within three years, only 13% continue to day trade. After five years, only 7% remain. 1
- Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers. 2
- The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year. Active traders underperform by 6.5% annually. 3
- Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees. 1
- Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade. This suggests that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a negative signal regarding their ability. 1
- Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders вЂ“ 1.6% in the average year. However, these day traders are very active вЂ“ accounting for 12% of all day trading activity. 1
- Among all traders, profitable traders increase their trading more than unprofitable day traders. 1
- Poor individuals tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on lottery purchases and their demand for lottery increases with a decline in their income. 4
- Investors with a large differential between their existing economic conditions and their aspiration levels hold riskier stocks in their portfolios. 4
- Men trade more than women. And unmarried men trade more than married men. 5
- Poor, young men, who live in urban areas and belong to specific minority groups invest more in stocks with lottery-type features. 5
- Within each income group, gamblers underperform non-gamblers. 4
- Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments. 6
- Trading in Taiwan dropped by about 25% when a lottery was introduced in April 2002. 7
- During periods with unusually large lottery jackpot, individual investor trading declines. 8
- Investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously sold for a profit than one previously sold for a loss. 9
- An increase in search frequency [in a specific instrument] predicts higher returns in the following two weeks. 10
- Individual investors trade more actively when their most recent trades were successful. 11
- Traders don’t learn about trading. вЂњTrading to learnвЂќ is no more rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn for the individual investor. 1
- The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs.
- [In Taiwan] the losses of individual investors are about 2% of GDP.
- Investors overweight stocks in the industry in which they are employed.
- Traders with a high-IQ tend to hold more mutual funds and larger number of stocks. Therefore, benefit more from diversification effects.
Conclusion: Why Most Traders Lose Money Is Not Surprising Anymore
After going over these 24 statistics it’s very obvious to tell why traders fail. More often than not trading decisionsВ are not based on sound research or tested trading methods, but on emotions, the need for entertainmentВ and the hope to make a million dollars in your underwear.В What traders always forget is that trading is a profession and requires skills that need to be developed over years. Therefore,В be mindful about your trading decisions and the view you have on trading. Don’t expect to be a millionaire by the end of the year, but keep in mind the possibilities trading online has.
– 1 Barber, Lee, Odean (2020): Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?
– 2 Odean (1998): Volume, volatility, price, and profit when all traders are above average
– 3 Barber, & Odean (2000): Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors
– 4 Kumar: Who Gambles In The Stock Market?
– 5 Barber, Odean (2001): Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment
– 6 Calvet, L. E., Campbell, J., & Sodini P. (2009). Fight or flight? Portfolio rebalancing by individual investors.
– 7 Barber, B. M., Lee, Y., Liu, Y., & Odean, T. (2009). Just how much do individual investors lose by trading?
– 8 Gao, X., & Lin, T. (2020). Do individual investors trade stocks as gambling? Evidence from repeated natural experiments
– 9 Strahilevitz, M., Odean, T., & Barber, B. (2020). Once burned, twice shy: How naГЇve learning, counterfactuals, and regret affect the repurchase of stocks previously sol.
– 10 Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2020). In search of attention
– 11 De, S., Gondhi, N. R. & Pochiraju, B. (2020). Does sign matter more than size? An investigation into the source of investor overconfidence
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You may have heard that maintaining your discipline is a key aspect of trading. While this is true, how can you ensure you enforce that discipline when you are in a trade? One way to help is to have a trading strategy that you can stick to. If it is well-reasoned and back-tested, you can be confident that you are using one of the successful Forex trading strategies. That confidence will make it easier to follow the rules of your strategy—therefore, to maintain your discipline.
A lot of the time when people talk about Forex strategies, they are talking about a specific trading method that is usually just one facet of a complete trading plan. A consistent Forex trading strategy provides advantageous entry signals, but it is also vital to consider:
- Position sizing
- Risk management
- How to exit a trade
Picking the Best Forex & CFD Strategy for You in 2020
When it comes to clarifying what the best and most profitable Forex trading strategy is, there really is no single answer. Here’s why. The best FX strategies will be suited to the individual. This means you need to consider your personality and work out the best Forex strategy to suit you. What may work very nicely for someone else may be a disaster for you.
Conversely, a strategy that has been discounted by others may turn out to be right for you. Therefore, experimentation may be required to discover the Forex trading strategies that work. Vice versa, it can remove those that don’t work for you. One of the key aspects to consider is a timeframe for your trading style.
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There are several types of trading styles (featured below) from short time-frames to long, and these have been widely used during previous years, and still remain to be a popular choice from the list of best Forex trading strategies in 2020. The best forex traders always remain aware of the different styles and strategies in their search for how to trade forex successfully, so that they can choose the right one, based on the current market conditions.
- Scalping – These are very short-lived trades, possibly held just for just a few minutes. A scalper seeks to quickly beat the bid/offer spread, and skim just a few points of profit before closing. This strategy typically uses tick charts, such as the ones that can be found in MetaTrader 4 Supreme Edition. This trading platform also offers some of the best forex indicators for scalping. In addition, the Forex-1 minute Trading Strategy can be considered an example of this trading style.
- Day trading – These are trades that are exited before the end of the day, as the name suggests. This removes the chance of being adversely affected by large moves overnight. Day trading strategies are usually the perfect forex trading strategies for beginners. Trades may last only a few hours, and price bars on charts might typically be set to one or two minutes. The 50-pips a day forex strategy is a good example of a day trading strategy.
- Swing trading – Positions held for several days, whereby traders are aiming to profit from short-term price patterns. A swing trader might typically look at bars every half hour or hour.
- Positional trading – Long-term trend following, seeking to maximise profit from major shifts in prices. A long-term trader would typically look at the end of day charts. The best positional trading strategies require immense patience and discipline on the part of traders. It requires a good amount of knowledge regarding market fundamentals.
50-Pips a Day Forex Strategy
This strategy leverages early market moves of certain highly liquid currency pairs. The GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs are some of the best currencies to trade using this particular strategy. After the 7am GMT candlestick closes, traders place two positions or two opposite pending orders. When one of them gets activated by price movements, the other position is automatically cancelled.
The profit target is set at 50 pips, and the stop-loss order is placed anywhere between 5 and 10 pips above or below the 7am GMT candlestick, after its formation. This is implemented to manage risk. After these conditions are set, it is now up to the market to take over the rest. Day Trading and Scalping are both short-term trading strategies. However, remember that shorter term implies greater risk, so it is essential to ensure effective risk management.
Forex Daily Charts Strategy
The best forex traders swear by daily charts over more short-term strategies. Compared to the forex 1-hour trading strategy, or even those with lower time-frames, there is less market noise involved with daily charts. Such charts can give you over 100 pips a day due to their longer timeframe, which has the potential to result in some of the best forex trades.
The trade signals are more reliable, and the potential for profit is much greater. Traders also don’t need to be concerned about daily news and random price fluctuations. The method is based on 3 main principles:
- Locating the trend: Markets trend and consolidate, and this process repeats in cycles. The first principle of this style is to find the long drawn out moves within the forex markets. One way to identify forex trends is by studying 180 periods worth of forex data. Identifying the swing highs and lows will be the next step. By referencing this price data on the current charts, you will be able to identify the market direction.
- Stay focused: This requires patience, and you will have to get rid of the urge to get into the market right away. You need to stay out and preserve your capital for a bigger opportunity.
- Less leverage and larger stop losses: Be aware of the large intraday swings in the market. Using larger stops, however, doesn’t mean putting large amounts of capital at risk.
While there are plenty of trading strategy guides available for professional FX traders, the best forex strategy for consistent profits can only be achieved through extensive practice. Here are some more strategies that you can try:
Forex 1-Hour Trading Strategy
You can take advantage of the 60-minute time frame in this strategy. The easiest currency pairs to trade using this strategy are the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and the AUD/USD. You would need a 100-pip momentum indicator and indicator arrows; both of which are available on MetaTrader 4.
Buy Trade Rules:
You can enter a long position when both of these conditions are met:
- The 100 pips Momentum indicator triggers a buy signal when its blue line crosses the red line from below
- The Indicator arrow gives a green arrow signal
In this case, you can place the stop-loss below the red indicator line or the most recent support line. You can either close the trade after 30-pips, or you can also take profit when the indicator arrows give a red arrow signal.
Sell Trade Rules:
You can enter a short position when the following conditions are met:
- The 100 pips Momentum indicator triggers a sell signal when its blue line crosses the red line from above
- The indicator arrows give a red arrow signal
Place the stop-loss above the red-indicator line, or the most recent resistance line. Close the trade after 30-pips, or when the indicator arrows give a green arrow signal.
Forex Weekly Trading Strategy
While many forex traders prefer intraday trading, because market volatility provides more opportunities for profits in narrower time-frames, forex weekly trading strategies can provide more flexibility and stability. A weekly candlestick provides extensive market information. It contains five daily candlesticks, and changes which reflect the actual market trends. Weekly forex trading strategies are based on lower position sizes and avoiding excessive risks.
For this strategy, we will use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicator. The previous week’s last daily candlestick has to be closed at a level above the EMA value. Now we have to look for the moment when the previous week’s maximum level was broken. Next, a buy stop order is placed on the H4 closed candlestick, at the price level of the broken level.
The stop loss has to be placed at the nearest minimum point, somewhere between 50 and 105 pips. The previous extreme value is taken for calculations if the nearest minimum point is closer than 50 pips. Here the last week’s movement range is taken as the profit range.
The Role of Price Action Trading in Forex Strategies
To what extent fundamentals are used varies from trader to trader. At the same time, the best FX strategies invariably utilize action. This is also known as technical analysis. When it comes to technical currency trading strategies, there are two main styles: trend following, and counter-trend trading. Both of these FX trading strategies try to profit by recognising and exploiting price patterns.
When it comes to price patterns, the most important concepts include ones such as support and resistance. Put simply, these terms represent the tendency of a market to bounce back from previous lows and highs. Support is the market’s tendency to rise from a previously established low. Resistance is the market’s tendency to fall from a previously established high. This occurs because market participants tend to judge subsequent prices against recent highs and lows.
What happens when the market approaches recent lows? Put simply, buyers will be attracted to what they regard as cheap. What happens when the market approaches recent highs? Sellers will be attracted to what they view as either expensive, or a good place to lock in a profit. Therefore, recent highs and lows are the yardstick by which current prices are evaluated.
There is also a self-fulfilling aspect to support and resistance levels. This happens because market participants anticipate certain price action at these points and act accordingly. As a result, their actions can contribute to the market behaving as they had expected.
However, it’s worth noting these three things:
- Support and resistance levels do not present ironclad rules, they are simply a common consequence of the natural behaviour of market participants.
- Trend-following systems aim to profit from the times when support and resistance levels break down.
- Counter-trending styles of trading are the opposite of trend following—they aim to sell when there’s a new high, and buy when there’s a new low.
Trend-Following Forex Strategies
Sometimes a market breaks out of a range, moving below the support or above the resistance to start a trend. How does this happen? When support breaks down and a market moves to new lows, buyers begin to hold off. This is because buyers are constantly noticing cheaper prices being established and want to wait for a bottom to be reached. At the same time, there will be traders who are selling in panic or simply being forced out of their positions.
The trend continues until the selling is depleted and belief starts to return to buyers when it is established that the prices will not decline further. Trend-following strategies encourage traders to buy on the markets once they have broken through resistance and sell markets, and when they have fallen through support levels.
In addition, trends can be dramatic and prolonged, too. Because of the magnitude of moves involved, this type of system has the potential to be the most successful Forex trading strategy. Trend-following systems use indicators to inform traders when a new trend may have begun, but there’s no sure-fire way to know of course.
Here’s the good news:
If the indicator can establish a time when there’s an improved chance that a trend has begun, you are tilting the odds in your favour. The indication that a trend might be forming is called a breakout. A breakout is when the price moves beyond the highest high or the lowest low for a specified number of days. For example, a 20-day breakout to the upside is when the price goes above the highest high of the last 20 days.
Trend-following systems require a particular mindset, because of the long duration—during which time profits can disappear as the market swings—these trades can be more psychologically demanding. When markets are volatile, trends will tend to be more disguised and price swings will be greater. Therefore, a trend-following system is the best trading strategy for Forex markets that are quiet and trending.
A good example of a simple trend-following strategy is a Donchian Trend system. Donchian channels were invented by futures trader Richard Donchian, and are indicators of trends being established. The Donchian channel parameters can be tweaked as you see fit, but for this example we will look at a 20-day breakout.
Basically, a Donchian channel breakout suggests one of two things:
- Buying if the price of a market goes above the high of the prior 20 days
- Selling if the price goes below the low of the prior 20 days.
There is an additional rule for trading when the market state is more favourable to the system. This rule is designed to filter out breakouts that go against the long-term trend. In short, you look at the 25-day moving average (MA) and the 300-day moving average. The direction of the shorter moving average determines the direction that is permitted. This rule states that you can only go:
- Short if the 25-day moving average is lower than the 300-day moving average
- Long if the 25-day moving average is higher than the 300-day moving average
Trades are exited in a similar way to entry, but only using a 10-day breakout. This means that if you open a long position and the market goes below the low of the prior 10 days, you might want to sell to exit the trade—and vice versa.
4-Hour Forex Trading Strategy
One potentially beneficial and profitable Forex trading strategy is the 4-hour trend following strategy. However, the 4-hour timeframe makes it more suitable for swing traders. This strategy uses a 4-hour base chart to screen for potential trading signal locations. The 1-hour chart is used as the signal chart, to determine where the actual positions will be taken.
Always remember that the time-frame for the signal chart should be at least an hour lower than the base chart. Two sets of MA lines will be chosen. One will be the 34-period MA, while the other is the 55-period MA. To ascertain whether a trend is worth trading, the MA lines will need to relate to the price action.
In case of an uptrend, the conditions that will be fulfilled include:
- The price will remain above the MA lines
- The 34-MA line will remain above the 55-MA line and continue to do so
- The MA lines will slope upwards for a maximum duration during an uptrend
In case of a downtrend, the following conditions will be fulfilled:
- Price action will remain below the two MA lines
- The 34-MA line will remain below the 55-MA line and continue to do so
- The MA lines will slope downwards for a maximum duration
The MA lines will be a support zone during uptrends, and there will be resistance zones during downtrends. It is inside and around this zone that the best positions for the trend trading strategy can be found. Learn to trade step-by-step with our brand new educational course, Forex 101, featuring key insights from professional industry experts. Click the banner below to register for FREE!
Counter-Trend Forex Strategies
Counter-trend strategies rely on the fact that most breakouts do not develop into long-term trends. Therefore, a trader using such a strategy seeks to gain an edge from the tendency of prices to bounce off previously established highs and lows. On paper, counter-trend strategies are the best Forex trading strategies for building confidence, because they have a high success ratio.
However, it’s important to note that tight reins are needed on the risk management side. These Forex trade strategies rely on support and resistance levels holding. But there is also a risk of large downsides when these levels break down. Constant monitoring of the market is a good idea. The market state that best suits this type of strategy is stable and volatile. This sort of market environment offers healthy price swings that are constrained within a range. It’s important to note that the market can switch states.
For example, a stable and quiet market might begin to trend, while remaining stable, then become volatile as the trend develops. How the state of a market might change is uncertain. You should be looking for evidence of what the current state is, to inform whether it suits your trading style.
Discovering the Best FX Strategy for You
Source: Admiral Markets Demo Account Example
Many types of technical indicators have been developed over the years. The great leaps made forward with online trading technologies have made it much more accessible for individuals to construct their own indicators and systems.
You can read more about technical indicators by checking out our education section or through the trading platforms we offer. The best forex trading strategies for beginners are the simple, well-established strategies that have worked for a huge list of successful forex traders already. Through trial and error you should be able to learn Forex trading strategies that best suit your own style. Go ahead and try out your strategies risk-free with our demo trading account.
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About Admiral Markets
Admiral Markets is a multi-award winning, globally regulated Forex and CFD broker, offering trading on over 8,000 financial instruments via the world’s most popular trading platforms: MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5. Start trading today!
This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks.
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