Predict the outcomes of events with Pivit

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Predict the outcomes of events with Pivit

Wall Street adored making use of InTrade to forecast political election results; however government bodies took the betting website away a year ago. Today the individuals who developed InTrade are back again utilizing Pivit, a brand new application that brings together advanced algorithms, crowd sourcing as well as social gaming to forecast the results of occasions like elections. That type of service can be extremely ideal for traders, who are regularly told how much impact Washington might have on economic markets.

“The value to traders is a solution to decrease and distill anything happening on the globe to 2 digits which turns into a dependable gauge of belief, “stated Binary Event, Network’s co-founder, Gregory DePetris which Pivit, is operated from.

How it Works

Pivit is accessible to utilize free of charge on Apple’s (AAPL, Tech30) App Retail store and may ultimately be presented on the internet. People are requested to predict if the likelihood of a given function is going higher or lower than what the algorithms are presently predicting. For instance, on a Tuesday morning, Pivit had been predicting a 95 percent probability that the GOP may gain control of the United States senate after the midterm elections.

People who properly forecast the following move — higher or lower — are going to be honored with points.

The main distinction among Pivit and InTrade is the fact that people cannot place real wagers. This may satisfy government bodies, but may also make traders suspicious of the predictive clout Pivit uses. After all, people are not placing their cash where their forecasts are.

Simultaneously, new research demonstrates that pressuring people to put cash down doesn’t invariably enhance the quality of their forecasts. “If you are able to create some type of accountability — regardless of it being financial or reputational — then this system offers value,” explained ConvergEx Group’s, chief market strategist Nicholas Colas who is, a supplier of brokerage as well as trading services.

The newest service offers a reward system for people who make the correct prediction by utilizing gifts as well as leaderboards which compare their points with individuals they recognize and people from the exact same area. Consider an up to date day high score listing on a pinball machine.

Pivit will be teaming together with CNN, who owns this site, to offer forecasts about the 2020 midterm election. People may forecast the odds of the GOP overtaking the United States senate and the results of individual races such as Republican optimistic Joni Ernst’s attempt to replace the retiring Democrat Tom Harkin. A 90% chance of actually succeeding is given to Ernest.

Wall Street has already been noticing the new Pivit, which in turn raised $6 million in financing through Guggenheim Partners as well as Broadhaven Capital Partners.

Predict election’s outcomes with Pivit

Washington (CNN) — CNN readers can predict this year’s midterm election — and on whether their friends and colleagues’ expectations will shift between now and Nov. 4 — in a new game called Pivit.

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Some of the year’s key Senate races — in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas and Kentucky — as well as whether Republicans will take control of the Senate are among the questions Pivit users can weigh in as the elections unfold. The Florida governor’s race, though, is the biggest toss-up, according to Pivit’s prognosticators, with a nearly even chance that either candidate will win.

The game is like playing the stock market: You win or lose points based on how well you can forecast the results and when a candidate’s fortunes will change.

Take, for example, the question: Will Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate?

Yesterday, the GOP had an 88% chance under a formula based on players’ clicks and Pivit experts’ analysis. The game gives you two options: Click the “up” arrow if you expect that percentage to rise, or the “down” arrow if you expect it to drop.

Say you’re bullish on the Republicans this year, but three days before the election, you think that races will get closer before they are won. In that scenario an 88% chance is too high. Today the chances have gone down to 86%. If you had clicked the “down” arrow, betting on that figure to drop — you’d have been rewarded with points. You can change course later and go all in with the GOP to rise to 100%.

If Republicans do take the Senate, everyone who bet in their favor can earn points — but a player who picked the GOP when their odds were at 86% can earn more points than one who went with them at 88%.

Every player can express the conviction of their opinions on Pivit. Bet one time if you think the chances might go higher, or bet 10 times if you’re positive the chances will go higher. Win more points for having more conviction, but be careful — you’ll lose more points if you’re wrong. The more often you change your mind, the more points you can win.

For example, if you bet 10 times on the Republicans winning the Senate when that figure is 86%, and other users later drive it up to 90%, you’d win 40 points.

When you think the tide’s about to turn, you can always “collect your points” or “cut your losses.”

The game is just for fun — and bragging rights. You won’t earn money, but you can beat your friends and coworkers as you climb the leaderboard and establish yourself as the next great political expert.

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InTrade 2.0: Meet Pivit, the new election crystal ball

Wall Street loved using InTrade to predict election outcomes, but regulators took the wagering site away last year.

Now the people who created InTrade are back with Pivit, a new tool that combines sophisticated algorithms, crowd sourcing and social gaming to predict the outcomes of events like elections.

That kind of service can be very helpful for investors, who are constantly reminded how much influence Washington can have on financial markets.

“The value to investors is a way to reduce and distill anything going on in the world to two digits that becomes a reliable gauge of sentiment,” said Gregory DePetris, co-founder of Binary Event Network, which operates Pivit.

How it works: Pivit is available to use for free on Apple’s ( AAPL ) App Store and will eventually be rolled out on the web. Users are asked to predict whether the chances of a given event will go higher or lower than the algorithm is currently forecasting.

For example, on Tuesday morning, Pivit was projecting a 95% chance that the GOP will win control of the Senate following the midterm elections. Users who correctly predict the next move — higher or lower — will be rewarded with points.

The key difference between Pivit and InTrade is that users can’t place actual bets. That may please regulators, but could also make investors skeptical of Pivit’s predictive clout. After all, users aren’t putting their money where their predictions are.

At the same time, recent research shows that forcing users to put money down doesn’t necessarily improve the quality of their predictions.

“If you can develop some kind of accountability — whether it’s monetary or reputational — then the system has value,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, a provider of brokerage and trading services.

The new service rewards people for making the right prediction by using prizes and leaderboards that compare their points with people they know and users from the same location. Think of a modern day high score list on a pinball machine.

Pivit is teaming up with CNN, the owner of this website, to provide predictions on the 2020 midterm election. Users can predict the odds of the GOP taking over the Senate and the outcomes of individual races like Republican hopeful Joni Ernst’s quest to replace retiring Democrat Tom Harkin. (Pivit gives Ernst a 90% chance of succeeding.)

Wall Street is already taking notice of Pivit, which raised $6 million in funding from Guggenheim Partners and Broadhaven Capital Partners.

“Given that politics has become such an emotional topic in this country, anything that can bring together an accurate and unbiased forecast is going to have a lot of value,” said Colas.

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